Global Market Briefing: Hormuz Conflict, CPI Showdown & Q2 Earnings Season

Tuesday, July 14, 2026 | Daily briefing on the Hormuz blockade, crucial U.S. CPI data, BOK rate decision, and crypto market volatility.

Daily Summary

Trump has reinstated the naval blockade on Iran and proposed a 20% transit fee on all cargo passing through Hormuz, stating, “The United States will henceforth be known as the Guardian of the Strait of Hormuz.” On Monday, Brent surged +9.6%, marking its largest daily jump since May 2020 (closing at $83.80); today it reached $84.47, its highest level since the signing of the MOU on June 17.

The US struck Iran for the third consecutive night (a 5-hour operation targeting coastal defense, missile/UAV sites); Iran hit UAE tankers with cruise missiles, resulting in the death of an Indian crew member on the vessel Mombasa. Hormuz transits fell -52% week-on-week.

Today is the most tense CPI day of the year: headline CPI is expected to cool from 4.2% to 3.8% (thanks to June’s 25% drop in oil), but the data is now “backward-looking” as oil has risen from $67 at the start of the month to $80. Following Waller’s remark that “an hike may be needed in the near term,” the probability of a July rate hike shot up from ~10% to ~50% in a matter of days; the 2-year yield is at 4.29%, its highest since early 2025.

Warsh delivers his first Humphrey-Hawkins testimony to Congress today (House today, Senate tomorrow), and six major banks kick off Q2 earnings, squeezing earnings season, CPI, and geopolitics into the same day. The VIX jumped +14% to 17.16.

BTC is at $62,717, strengthening the “end of panic selling” thesis: according to Wintermute, “weak hands are gone” (BTC held $62K through the air strikes and Hormuz shutdown without flinching); last week saw +$197 million in ETF inflows, snapping an 8-week outflow streak; on Glassnode, spot selling pressure fell from ~2,000 BTC daily in June to just 53 BTC in July. However, $250 million exited ETFs yesterday, and the recovery is driven by derivatives rather than spot. Today’s CPI is a tipping point: Bitcoin’s price performance on CPI days in 2026 has been -5.8%, +8.4%, -4%, -27.6%, and +10.9%.

Chinese exports grew +27% in June, the strongest since October 2021 (driven by AI demand + front-loading ahead of tariffs); the Bank of Korea is expected to deliver its first rate hike in over three years on Thursday (expected to reach 2.75%). The global tightening wave is expanding.

Main Agenda

“Guardian of Hormuz”: Blockade + 20% Transit Fee

Trump made a move that altered the economic architecture of the war: he reinstated the naval blockade targeting Iranian vessels and their customers (“IRAN BLOCKADE — named as such because it only stops Iran’s ships or customers”) and proposed a 20% fee on all cargo passing through the strait, citing: “reimbursing the US for all costs of providing security in this highly volatile part of the world.” Layer of irony: the US had previously rejected Iran’s own transit fee plans as violating international law, and now it is demanding fees itself.

On the ground on the third night: CENTCOM struck coastal defense systems, missile/UAV sites, and maritime capabilities in a five-hour operation. Iran’s response inflicted civilian costs: UAE tankers Mombasa and Al Bahiyah were hit by two Iranian cruise missiles in Omani territorial waters—killing one Indian sailor and injuring eight; missile sirens wailed in Bahrain (home of the 5th Fleet); the Houthis fired missiles at Saudi Arabia.

Kpler data reveals the physical reality: confirmed transits on July 10-12 were down -52% week-on-week, with traffic shifting to “defensive routes.” The US announced it had escorted over 8 million barrels of oil, but according to Lloyd’s List, shipowners have suspended transit decisions, and war risk premiums are set to spike.

CPI Day

June CPI, to be released today at 8:30 AM ET (15:30 TRT), should look comforting on paper: the Dow Jones consensus expects headline CPI to fall to -0.2% monthly and from 4.2% to 3.8% annually (a direct result of crude oil plummeting 25% in June); core is projected at +0.2% monthly / 2.8% annually, marking the first decline in both series since January.

The issue is timing: the moment the data is released, it will be “backward-looking” because WTI has climbed from $67 at the beginning of the month to $80; June’s gasoline relief will reverse in July’s data. NAB’s Attrill: if core CPI comes in at 0.3% or above (along with PPI), the Fed’s preferred core PCE will also be 0.3%+, which “could trigger an hike at the July meeting.” Monday’s push by Waller (“an hike may be needed in the near term if inflation remains significantly above target”) has already shifted pricing: the probability of a July hike jumped from ~10% to ~50% in days.

The counter-scenario from ING: if Warsh wishes, he can emphasize the “docility of inflation expectations,” noting “he has the ammunition to fend off the hike risk and stay on hold; even if a hike occurs, the richness of the 5-year curve suggests it will be rolled back later, and rate cuts are still expected more than hikes.” Today the House, tomorrow the Senate: the first semi-annual testimony of a chairman who does not provide forward guidance—every word will be under a microscope.

Bank Earnings Open Under Fire

The Q2 season kicks off today with five giant banks: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup. The timing is challenging: yesterday the S&P fell -0.8%, Nasdaq fell -1.6%, and VIX jumped +14%, but the baseline expectation is strong: FactSet consensus shows S&P 500 Q2 earnings growing +23.6% year-on-year; trading volumes inflated by the SpaceX IPO should have supported bank trading revenues.

Graham from Canaccord: “Yesterday was a bit of an outlier day, everything fell, but it doesn’t change our view on earnings season; we remain constructive on big tech, with room for upside surprises in earnings.” Thursday brings TSMC (June sales signaled strength with a +67.9% increase) and the BOK decision; Netflix, GE, J&J, and UnitedHealth will report throughout the week.

A note on Korea: the KOSPI saw its worst two-day drop since the start of the war during intraday trading, but remains one of the best-performing indices of the year; SK Hynix deepened its correction with an -8% drop. According to Fibonacci AM, the reason is not fundamental: profit-taking + ADR arbitrage + a loss of risk appetite across Korea.

Clarity Act: Graham’s Death, Trump’s Call, and the Ethical Wall

A dramatic week in Washington: Senator Lindsey Graham, a close ally of Trump, passed away suddenly, and Trump called for the passage of the Clarity Act “in his honor” (supported by Lummis). This call, coming via someone not involved in the bill’s negotiations, is a new sign that Trump views crypto as a personal priority (signaling an exception for Clarity while refusing to sign all other bills unless tied to voter ID requirements).

However, the ethical wall is rising: in a briefing organized by Murphy, ethics advocates argued that Trump must be prevented from profiting further from the industry he regulates, with ownership bans covering family members and disclosure rules on the table. Gillibrand’s target is clear: Trump’s single largest income source in 2025 was $636 million from his self-named memecoin, and pressure continues to make the issuance of digital assets by presidents illegal; “this won’t work without ethics reforms banning members of Congress, the president, and spouses from profiting from their offices.”

Murphy, Van Hollen, and Merkley will hold a press conference this week against the Clarity Act for “failing to rein in Trump’s corrupt crypto schemes.” A new draft is expected within days, but without completed ethics language, the 60-vote math remains unsolved.

China Surprise: Exports +27% — AI Boom Drives Trade

Amid weak domestic demand data, a strong foreign trade surprise from China: June exports grew +27% year-on-year in dollar terms, the fastest since October 2021 (expectation 18.2%, May 19.4%); imports grew +36%, the strongest since June 2021; surplus reached $125.6 billion. The driving force: demand for chips and data center equipment from the global AI boom + front-loaded shipments ahead of tariffs.

Q2 GDP will be announced tomorrow; the Politburo meeting at the end of July will be watched for policy signals—but analysts suggest that with resilient exports and Beijing focused on trimming overcapacity to combat deflation, significant stimulus should not be expected.

Singapore is also strong: Q2 GDP +5.7% (expectation 5.5%), manufacturing +10.4%. Regional picture: while Asia’s export engine is fed by AI, the energy shock is bloating the import bill—the BOK’s tightening cycle starting on Thursday is a product of this squeeze.

Macro Framework

Korea: First Hike in Three Years Arrives Thursday

36 out of 37 economists in a Reuters poll expect the BOK to raise rates to 2.75% on Thursday, its first hike in more than three years. The reasons are stacked: inflation was at a 2.5-year high of 3.2% in June and has been above target for four months; Q1 growth was the fastest in six years; housing prices and household debt are rising; the Won is down -4% year-to-date, inflating imported input costs.

Son from Barclays: “It was well-telegraphed last meeting—Governor Shin made it clear that buffalos rarely contradict each other, and both point to a hike.” 28 out of 31 economists expect a second hike to 3.00% by year-end; the median points to a peak of 3.25% in Q1 2027.

Wu from BofA highlights the Won: “Verbal intervention and coordinated inter-agency messaging have intensified, but the impact is limited—we will closely monitor signals that could open the door to back-to-back hikes.” Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, and the Philippines have already tightened—the Asia-Pacific cycle is falling into place.

Yen 162.38 — Third Message from Katayama, Market is Weary

Act three of the GPIF story: Katayama said today, “If the asset management environment changes drastically, pension fund allocation adjustments may be considered”—Friday’s stimulus message, Monday’s “no urgent plans” correction, today’s conditional open door.

The Yen briefly strengthened to 162.31 before giving back its gains (162.38). “For GPIF-driven Yen buying pressure to persist, the decision must come quickly, and domestic stock+bond allocation increases must be at least 5 percentage points each; modest increases or a prolonged process would have limited impact.”

The Dollar Index is flat at 101.23; the Kiwi is diverging at +0.5%. Extreme scenario: the US prevented its citizens in Congo from returning on commercial flights due to an Ebola outbreak, adding a health headline to the geopolitical risk list.

Crypto

BTC $62,717 – Are the Weak Hands Gone? We Find Out Today

Two opposing narratives in crypto converge on today’s CPI. The optimistic camp is thickening the “capitulation is over” thesis: as De Maere from the Wintermute OTC desk put it, “BTC held $62K through rounds of US air strikes and the Hormuz shutdown without flinching—it seems the weak hands are gone.” Last week, net inflows of +$197.4 million into spot ETFs broke an eight-week outflow streak; on Glassnode, spot selling pressure collapsed to 53 BTC in July from June’s daily average of ~2,000 BTC (the quietest since April in 2026); according to on-chain data cited by Mudrex, long-term holders accumulated 5,912 BTC over the last two days.

The cautious camp remains strong: $250 million exited ETFs in a single day yesterday (“not an abandonment, but repositioning ahead of an intense macro calendar”); Kuptsikevich from FxPro questions the quality of the recovery—the rebound from the $57,700 bottom is driven by speculative futures rather than spot buyers; without a strong return of spot liquidity, the price could stay flat for months. Interest rate pressure adds to the strain: the spike in July hike odds to ~50% dragged major coins down by 2%+ in 24 hours.

The technical and positioning map shows an explosive squeeze brewing: options data shows the price tightly anchored in the $58,000–$65,000 range, but massive volatility is building; in leverage data, the crowd quickly flipped to a heavy short bias—a contrarian signal for the short-term bearish scenario (fuel for a short squeeze). According to the liquidation map, a test of $65,000 before $58,000 would not be a surprise.

• Levels: Support at $62,000 / $61,300 / $60,000; resistance at $64,700–$64,900, above that $66,000, key zone at $68,000.

Historical context highlights today’s importance: the five CPI days of 2026 produced moves of -5.8%, +8.4%, -4.0%, -27.6%, and +10.9% in BTC—macro data is now a greater source of volatility than crypto-native events. The scenarios are clear: core CPI at 0.2% or lower -> July hike pricing fades, testing $65,000; 0.3%+ -> hike confirmed, defense of $61,300–$60,000. ETH is relatively resilient at $1,787 (+0.2% daily), SOL is the weak link at $75,31, and ENA is diverging at +3.3%. CoinSwitch reminds us: the close above the 200-week moving average is structurally preserved: today’s data will dictate the direction.

Commodity Environment

Oil: The Day After the Largest Daily Jump Since May 2020

Brent closed +9.6% yesterday at $83.80, its largest daily gain since May 2020; today it is trading in the $84.47–$85 range (+1.4-2%), its highest since the June 17 MOU. WTI is at $79.32–$80, up ~18% from $67 at the start of the month.

The blockade and Iran’s responses have injected fresh risk into the market; even if there is no total shutdown, the conflicting targets of both sides have pushed the supply outlook into deep uncertainty. The key variable is the physical movement of crude—any meaningful congestion in tanker traffic will trigger a new leg up; conversely, if barrels continue to flow despite military escalation, part of the current geopolitical premium will gradually dissolve.

The WTI chart has begun to bring a $100 target into play, as we pointed out at the beginning of the week. Energy stocks reacted sharply: XOM +4.05% ($144.51), CVX +3.29% ($182.20). Copper grew +2.3% to $6.3, aligned with China’s import surge; gold is attempting to hold ground at $4,035 (+0.95%), seeing light safe-haven buying after yesterday’s selloff.

Equity Front

Yesterday’s Selloff, Today’s Test: VIX +14%

On Monday, Wall Street struggled to digest the blockade news: S&P 500 -0.79% (7,515), Nasdaq -1.88%, Dow -0.26%; the VIX jumped +14.2% to 17.16, the first serious fracture in weeks of complacency.

Chip stocks led yesterday’s losses in the Nasdaq-100: NVDA -3.5%, AMD -4.2%, ASML -4.0%, TSM -2.9%; TAIEX joined today at -1.5%. Winners were energy and the defensive rotation: XOM/CVX were strong, MSFT diverged at +1.5%, and AAPL held near its peak at $317.

Today, futures are slightly negative (Dow -187, Nasdaq -0.4%) as the market holds its breath ahead of the CPI + Warsh + bank earnings trifecta. The S&P is in an intermediate-to-long-term ascending trend channel, testing resistance at 7,560; a breakout would be a positive signal; RSI supports the upward trend. The “SPX breakout is near” thesis will be tested at this resistance. European futures are down (DAX -0.9%): as an energy importer, the continent is the primary loser of the oil shock.

Weekly Calendar

Date	Day	Development
July 14	Tuesday (Today)	US June CPI (8:30 AM ET) (headline expected down to 3.8%, core 2.8%) — one of the most critical data points of the year.
July 14	Tuesday (Today)	Warsh’s first Humphrey-Hawkins testimony before the House Financial Services Committee.
July 14	Tuesday (Today)	Q2 Bank Earnings: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup.
July 15	Wednesday	US June PPI; Warsh at Senate Banking; China Q2 GDP; CXMT Shanghai IPO book building.
July 16	Thursday	Bank of Korea Interest Rate Decision (hike to 2.75% expected — first in over 3 years); TSMC Q2 results.
July 17	Friday	House digital assets subcommittee Clarity Act hearing in New York; Burnham Labor leadership.
This week	—	Updated draft of the Clarity Act expected; Democratic senators (Murphy, Van Hollen, Merkley) holding a counter press conference.
End of July	—	July 28-29 FOMC — July hike probability priced at ~50%; China Politburo meeting.