Monday, August 10, 2026 | Daily briefing on US payroll shock, the Hormuz deadlock, rate pivot expectations, and Bitcoin’s macro breakout.

Daily Summary

Employment Report Shocked: The US lost 23,000 jobs in July. Expectations were for a +80,000 gain; furthermore, May and June data were revised downward by a total of 103,000, solidifying the argument that the labor market is finally weakening. Annual wage growth stands at 3.2%. Over the course of a week, the market cut the probability of a rate hike in September from 67% to 44%, which propelled the S&P 500 to a record close on Friday.

However, the War Front Strained Again; Oil Rose 5% in Three Sessions: Iran reiterated that a new route agreement with Oman is in its “final stages,” but the strait will only be opened after US conditions (including compensation for attacks) are met. There are no direct talks with the US. Over the weekend, Bessent stated, “Hormuz will become irrelevant for the US; oil will be redirected to pipelines,” signaling the White House’s intention to wash its hands of the issue. Brent crude is at $84.40.

The Event of the Week is Wednesday’s CPI: Expectations are for headline CPI at +0.1% MoM (3.4% YoY) and core CPI at +0.2% MoM (2.5% YoY). Feroli from JPMorgan noted: “Our 0.22% estimate for core CPI may not be enough to trigger a rate hike in September, but repeated data near 0.3% could.” The resurgence in oil prices makes this release critical; an upside surprise could reignite rate hike expectations.

Bitcoin Surpassed $65,000; Weak Employment Data Benefited BTC: BTC climbed to $65,100 with a weekly gain of ~3%; all major cryptocurrencies except XRP closed the week in the green (ETH and BNB were also up ~3%). Spot ETFs saw net inflows of $853.5 million last week. However, year-to-date ETFs remain roughly $4.5 billion in the red; a sustained rally requires consistently strong inflows.

Bitcoin Accomplished This Without Help From Its Own Backyard: Over the past ten days, a fourth wave of attacks hit Coldcard wallets, a critical vulnerability in BTCPay Server drained merchant Lightning nodes on Friday, and a controversial chain split occurred via BIP-110, producing two blocks before halting. The price did not react to any of these events; the driver remains purely macro. $65,800 is the critical level; if broken, $73.700 is within reach.

Earnings Season Closes Strong; Gold Approached $4,400: Roughly 90% of S&P 500 results are in; earnings per share (EPS) grew 30% YoY, with a 76% beat rate matching the strongest performance since 2021. JPMorgan raised its S&P 500 target to 8,000. Gold reached $4,402 with a weekly gain of 9%, silver surged 11% to $64, and copper traded near record levels at $6.64.

Main Agenda

Jobs Shock: US Lost 23k Jobs, Fed Expectations Reversed

Friday’s employment report arrived. The US economy lost 23,000 non-farm jobs in July, defying expectations for an addition of roughly 80,000. Moreover, data from the previous two months were severely revised downward: May was cut by 66,000 and June by 37,000, erasing a total of 103,000 jobs from prior estimates. The unemployment rate held around 4.1%, while average hourly earnings rose 3.2% annually.

This picture provided a clear answer to the months-long question of “Is the labor market slowing down?” and altered market expectations for the Fed: the probability of a rate hike in September dropped to 44% from 67% a week prior. A weakening labor market restricts the Fed’s hand in tightening monetary policy further.

This environment carried the S&P 500 to a historic record close on Friday, bringing the index to a new peak for the first time in two months. While the market welcomes the report’s dovish implications, investors should remain cautious about the future growth potential of an economy with fewer people working. Weak employment is a double-edged sword: it relieves rate-hike pressure but reignites concerns that the economy is beginning to crack. This contradiction makes this week’s CPI even more critical; the market needs confirmation that softening labor demand translates not just to weaker growth, but to sustainable disinflation. Perception around US inflation data will be the biggest variable this week.

Hormuz Impasse Deepens: Bessent Says It Will Become ‘Irrelevant’

Iran stated on Sunday that an agreement defining new maritime routes in Hormuz with Oman is in its “final stages,” but reiterated that the strait will only be opened after the US fulfills other conditions—including compensation for extensive US strikes against Iran. Foreign Minister Araghchi noted there are no talks with the US and Tehran will not initiate discussions as long as Washington violates the temporary agreement signed in June.

The US side offered a striking response to this stance: Treasury Secretary Bessent claimed over the weekend that Hormuz will become “irrelevant” and that oil will eventually be re-routed through pipelines. Analysts interpreted this as a sign that the White House is trying to step away from the entire issue. Trump also told Axios that the US is “only half-negotiating” with Iran and wants the country to feel economic pressure; the new strategy appears to favor increasing economic pressure over military strikes.

With neither side backing down, negotiations have hit a stalemate. Oil responded to this uncertainty by rising: Brent rose over 5% across three sessions to $84.40, while WTI advanced to $78.77. New supply-side threats have also emerged: the Houthis claimed on Sunday that they struck Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery and resumed attacks on the Red Sea port of Mocha. Saudi Arabia had signed a joint defense agreement with Turkey and Pakistan two days prior. A major breakthrough toward unrestricted shipping could pull oil prices down, but a breakdown in talks or fresh supply disruptions could quickly bring the geopolitical risk premium back into play.

CPI Week: Testing Record High Equities

This week’s primary macroeconomic event is Wednesday’s July CPI report, posing an important test for a stock market hovering at record levels. Consensus expectations are +0.1% MoM (3.4% YoY) for headline inflation and +0.2% MoM (2.5% YoY) for core CPI; a deceleration in the core annual rate from June’s 2.6% would signal a continuing gradual moderation.

However, this print arrives in a more challenging context than last month’s. June’s noticeable CPI decline was likely misleading, as it was driven by falling energy costs during a lull in conflict—conflict that has since re-escalated alongside rising oil prices. Feroli from JPMorgan noted that their 0.22% estimate for core CPI is likely not firm enough to push the Fed into a September hike, but repeated readings near 0.3% could; one dynamic being monitored is any rebound in core goods prices after two months of declines.

The market mechanism is straightforward: a softer-than-expected CPI would further dampen rate hike expectations, supporting risk assets and Bitcoin. Conversely, a hotter-than-expected print could reignite rate hike speculation and trigger sell-offs across equities and crypto.

Earnings Season Closes Strong: EPS Up 30% YoY

The Q2 earnings season is drawing to a strong close, solidifying the fundamental backdrop for the record equity rally. According to BofA, with nearly 90% of S&P 500 results reported, earnings per share (EPS) grew 30% YoY (excluding investment gains from Alphabet and Amazon). The 76% beat rate matches the strongest level seen since 2021.

Artificial intelligence remains the dominant theme: median EPS growth for AI-related stocks stood at 28%, compared to 12% for non-AI stocks. However, consensus expects AI growth to moderate to 16% next quarter. This robust performance prompted JPMorgan to raise its 2026 EPS forecast to $365 (35% YoY growth) and increase its S&P 500 price target from 7,800 to 8,000.

Regarding the nature of the July sell-off: much of the downside was attributed to overcrowded positioning and overly exuberant expectations, both of which unwound over the month. Thus, the return to record highs reflects both solid fundamentals and cleared positioning. While this week’s earnings calendar is relatively quiet, key names in high-flying AI and tech trades are reporting: semiconductor equipment maker Applied Materials, networking provider Cisco, and cloud infrastructure firm CoreWeave. Semiconductor stocks have been a primary engine of this year’s rally; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up over 70% in 2026, though it remains more than 15% below its late-June peak and subject to sharp daily swings.

Macro Framework

Dollar Rebounds From Two-Month Lows, Yen At 158

The US Dollar recovered slightly on Monday from two-month lows printed following Friday’s weak payrolls data. The dollar index rose 0.06% to 99.70, nudging away from its lowest level since June 2. The rebound was driven by rising oil prices and a mixed outlook in the Middle East.

• Euro / Sterling: The Euro traded near $1.1551, its strongest level since mid-June, while Sterling stood at $1.3486.
• Yen: The Yen weakened toward 158.30, continuing to give back intervention-led gains, though it remains well clear of last month’s four-decade low of 164. Investors remain wary of potential intervention. A key development came from the Bank of Japan: the summary of opinions from its July meeting warned that rising inflation risks might require an agile and faster-than-expected pace of rate hikes, strengthening the probability of a BOJ hike in September.
• Treasuries & Central Banks: The 10-year US Treasury yield hovered near 4.66%, ticking slightly higher as the market prepares for $125 billion in new issuance this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia holds its rate decision tomorrow, with expectations to hold steady at 4.35%.
• China: Data showed persistent weakness in domestic demand: both CPI and PPI missed expectations in July, weighing on Chinese equities.

Gold Rose 9% Weekly, Copper Near Record

Precious metals are experiencing a powerful rally:

• Gold: Advanced 9% on the week to $4,402. Falling yields and weak employment data supported the non-yielding metal, driving a breakout above its prolonged consolidation over $4,000. This marks rapid progress toward Citi’s scenario of $4,500 in Q4.
• Silver & Palladium: Silver surged 11% weekly to $64.22, while Palladium gained 10% to $1,380; both benefited from industrial demand and macroeconomic support.
• Copper: Traded at $6.64, just 1.4% shy of its all-time high of $6.90, propelled by supply constraints and demand from electrification and AI infrastructure.
• Energy: Brent stood at $83.89 and WTI at $78.33, both up roughly 10% on the month.

Crypto

Bitcoin $65,000: Carried by Weak Payrolls, Awaiting CPI Test

Bitcoin crossed $65,000 today, touching an intra-day high of $65,363. It holds weekly gains of roughly 3%, trading near $65,100. The primary driver behind the recovery was Friday’s weak employment report; investors interpreted slower hiring as a factor reducing pressure on the Fed to tighten policy.

• Altcoins: Ether gained 3% weekly to $1,919, Solana rose 5% to $77 (the strongest performer among majors), and BNB hovered at $603. XRP was the sole outlier, declining 4% weekly to $1.03 and lagging the broader rally.
• Institutional Demand: Institutional flows strengthened noticeably. Spot ETFs recorded $853.5 million in net inflows between August 3–7, marking the strongest week since mid-April and signaling a cautious return of institutional buyers after heavy sell-offs earlier in the year.
• The Caveat: Year-to-date, ETFs remain nearly $4.5 billion in net outflows, explaining the heavy selling pressure that dragged Bitcoin down 33% below $60,000 by late June. For BTC to sustain a meaningful rally, consistent and large inflows are required. During the April–October 2025 bull run—when BTC surged from $75,000 to $126,000—weekly ETF inflows repeatedly surpassed $1 billion. A single week of $853 million is encouraging, but not yet definitive.

Notably, Bitcoin achieved this recovery without internal industry tailwinds. The past ten days saw a flurry of crypto-native negative headlines: a fourth attack wave on Coldcard wallets (with potential losses approaching $114 million), a critical vulnerability in BTCPay Server that drained merchant Lightning nodes on Friday, and a controversial chain split via BIP-110 that produced two blocks before stalling. Price action ignored all of these events, confirming that macro factors—specifically Fed expectations and risk appetite—are entirely driving the market.

Technical Outlook: Technical momentum is moderately positive. The RSI sits at 55, above its 50 average and neutral threshold without reaching overbought territory. Analysts highlight $65,800 as a critical resistance level; a breakout above it could set up a path toward $73,700, supported by bullish divergences in long-term RSI and MACD metrics. The price structure has improved significantly since $62,500, but the $65,000–$66,000 zone presents friction due to concentrated liquidation liquidity. The core test remains Wednesday’s CPI: a higher-than-expected print could reignite rate hike expectations and weigh on risk assets, while a cooler print would reinforce Friday’s dovish narrative.

Commodity Environment

Oil Up 5% in Three Sessions: Deadlock Premium Returns

Oil prices gained over 5% across three sessions due to the deepening diplomatic stalemate, bringing Brent to $84.40 and WTI to $78.77. After dropping over 7% last week on hopes of an Iran-Oman agreement, prices reclaimed part of that risk premium as talks stalled.

The market is currently caught between opposing forces:

• Bullish Factors: Iran reiterating that the strait will only open if US conditions are met, the absence of direct talks, Houthi strikes on Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery and renewed attacks on the port of Mocha, alongside ADNOC reporting 15 vessels hit.
• Bearish Factors: Bessent’s statements that “Hormuz will become irrelevant as oil redirects to pipelines,” planned OPEC+ supply increases in September, and continued flows from the Gulf.

This balance keeps Brent range-bound between $83 and $85. The fact that prices remain well below June’s peak of $102 suggests the market is pricing in a prolonged impasse rather than an immediate full-scale escalation. This uncertainty makes oil a critical variable for Wednesday’s CPI reading, as rebounding energy prices add upward pressure to inflation metrics.

Equities

Record Close: Weak Payrolls Fueled Rally, CPI to Test Stance

Wall Street posted a record close on Friday, completing its strongest weekly performance since April and marking a second consecutive week of gains. The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high, extending year-to-date gains above 13%, while the Nasdaq rose 5% on the week.

The rally rested on three pillars:

1. Easing interest rate concerns following weak employment data.
2. Falling oil prices due to a temporary easing in US-Iran tensions at the time.
3. Robust quarterly earnings.

Asian markets tracked Wall Street’s momentum overnight, with the Nikkei up 2% and Korea’s Kospi gaining 0.8%, led by a >1.5% rally in semiconductor names like TSMC and SK Hynix. However, US futures are slightly negative and European futures appear soft amid rising oil prices, reflecting post-record caution. The S&P 500 sits around 7,757 points, within 0.5% of its peak.

• Stock Highlights: AI leadership remains clear. Nvidia (NVDA) gained 11.6% weekly to $224, Microsoft (MSFT) rose 30.4% monthly to $500, while Tesla (TSLA) lagged, down 16.6% monthly to $328.
• Earnings Ahead: Applied Materials, Cisco, and CoreWeave report this week, offering further insight into the tech and AI trades.
• Risks: A market trading at record valuations and pricing in positive news remains vulnerable to a warm inflation print. If CPI comes in above expectations, equity pullbacks are likely. The semiconductor index remaining 15% below its peak highlights that the rally’s breadth is still seeking full confirmation.

Weekly Calendar

Day	Economic Calendar
Today	EU Sentix Investor Confidence; Speech by Cleveland Fed President Hammack; no major data releases
Tuesday	Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision (Expected to hold at 4.35%)
Wednesday	US July CPI (Main Event): Headline expected at +0.1% MoM (3.4% YoY), Core expected at +0.2% MoM (2.5% YoY)
Thursday	US July PPI: Secondary inflation gauge; Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
Friday	US July Retail Sales: Expected +0.2% MoM (downside risk as Prime Day shifted to June); Consumer Sentiment