Global Markets on Edge: Bond Yields Surge to 19-Year Highs Amid Macro Shifts and Exchange Exploit

Friday, September 25, 2026 | Daily briefing on 19-year high bond yields, global central bank tightening, oil market divergence, and Bitget’s infrastructure exploit.

Daily Summary

Our Expectation: The primary focus of the week has decisively been the bond market: the 10-year yield surged by 20 basis points in two days to hit a 19-year high, while mortgage rates reached 7.45%. As long as the risk-free yield remains above 5%, every asset class must defend its valuation against this threshold; today, we expect a cautious stance in risk assets, the dollar to remain strong above 101, and ongoing pressure on emerging markets. Divergence persists on the equities side: the AI theme is currently absorbing rate pressure, but rate-sensitive industrials, consumer stocks, and small caps continue to lag. Brent crude hovers around 105, with high two-way risk between a gradual opening scenario for the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi attacks. In crypto, today’s $14 billion options expiry and the Bitget exploit are key factors amplifying short-term volatility.

• 10-year yield at a 19-year high: 5.2251%. It rose 20 basis points in two days, marking the largest two-day move since last April’s tariff shock. The 30-year sits at 5.5016%, the highest since 2004, and the U.S. mortgage rate reached 7.45%, the highest since April 2024.
• The Treasury’s buyback fell short again. Out of the planned $6 billion, only $4 billion was executed. Bessent stepped in a month ago to defend the 5.30% level; the 30-year is now at 5.48%.
• The tightening wave has reached Scandinavia. Norges Bank delivered a surprise hike, Sweden signaled it will follow suit by year-end, and Mexico held rates steady but dropped its long-pause guidance. Pricing for an October Fed hike stands at 68-71%, with over 90 bps of tightening priced in for this cycle.
• The dollar posts consecutive weekly gains for the first time in three months. The index rose 1% to 101.2; the euro dropped to a two-month low of 1.1370, marking its worst streak since late 2025, and sterling hit a three-month low of 1.3220.
• Brent is above $105, and the spread with WTI is at its widest since May: $12.68. The catalyst is the fear that a diesel export ban will disrupt the U.S. market. Houthis fired six ballistic missiles at Taif and Yanbu; Saudi Arabia intercepted and downed all of them.
• The U.S. and Iran seek a phased resolution. According to sources, Tehran will open Hormuz, and Washington will lift the economic blockade. Pezeshkian stated: “America must decide whether or not it wants to end this.”
• Bitget suffered a $351.6 million exploit. CEO Gracy Chen clarified that private keys were not compromised; attackers hijacked a back-end system in the wallet infrastructure, triggering the authorization process with forged transaction data. Withdrawals were suspended, and a $464 million protection fund is covering the losses.
• Today: U.S. durable goods orders and Michigan consumer sentiment; Williams and BoE Governor Bailey speak at a conference in the UK. Approximately $14 billion in options expire on Deribit.

Story of the Day

Bonds step out of the quiet corner

Treasury bonds are traditionally considered the quiet backyard of markets; when they hijack the headlines and start trading like a retail-heavy stock market, it means something has gone wrong. Reuters’ analogy this morning encapsulated the week. Over two sessions, the 10-year yield breached the 5% barrier and did not stop, reaching a 19-year high of 5.2251% overnight. This represents a roughly 20-basis-point jump in two days—levels last seen in April of last year when Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs shook the markets; this time, there is no such obvious trigger. The move is even sharper further out the curve: the 30-year yield jumped 16 basis points to 5.5016%, the highest level since 2004. It has been only a month since Treasury Secretary Bessent stepped in with additional buybacks to defend the 5.30% level; yields are now at 5.48%, and last night’s latest buyback operation only managed to execute $4 billion of the planned $6 billion.

The sell-off spilled over to Asia: Japan’s 10-year yield rose 4 bps to 3.115% (the highest since 1996), while Australia’s 10-year approached a 15-year peak at 5.408%. deVere Group CEO Nigel Green puts it bluntly: the world’s bond markets are screaming, and ignoring this could prove very costly. When the risk-free rate in the world’s largest economy settles above 5%, every asset on the planet must defend its valuation against it—stocks, real estate, private credit, and emerging market debt are none of them immune. The impact is already tangible: the U.S. 30-year mortgage rate rose to 7.45%, the highest since April 2024, paralyzing the housing market. Morgan Stanley economist Heather Berger wrote that even before recent moves, the decline in credit card and auto loan rates had stalled, mortgages were re-accelerating, and these pressures would weaken consumption—particularly via goods spending—leading them to forecast a 40 bps slowdown in real consumption growth next year. There is no short-term relief either: the 2-year yield is near a two-year high at 4.9035%, up 16 bps this week. Futures are pricing a 68-71% probability of a new hike in October, up from 53% earlier this week, with over 90 bps—nearly four quarter-point hikes—priced in for this cycle.

The Fed’s pivot last week is echoing globally. Norges Bank delivered a surprise hike on Thursday, Sweden’s Riksbank signaled it will follow by year-end, Banxico held rates while dropping its long pause guidance, and the RBA is expected to hike by 25 bps next week to 4.60%, near a 15-year high. Fed speakers are echoing the same tone: Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson noted that “some additional tightening may be needed,” while New York Fed President John Williams stated that “another rate hike before year-end may be appropriate.” Bond managers’ attitudes summarize the environment: in Reuters discussions with eight major fund managers overseeing nearly $700 billion, the consensus message is to avoid big macro bets and tilt toward high-quality, short-duration paper. Vanguard’s Arvind Narayan stated directly: “This is not the time to be a hero.” The Bloomberg Aggregate index is down 1% this year, marking its worst performance since 2022. The consolation is that yields are rising from a much higher starting point than in 2022: income is offsetting price drops, and PIMCO’s Dan Ivascyn alongside Capital Group’s Pramod Atluri see opportunities in long-term Treasuries, viewing the Fed’s determination to tame inflation as a positive signal for the bond market.

Japan’s “Catching a Falling Knife” Dilemma

The repatriation of Japanese capital has begun, but a much larger asset withdrawal is on hold due to uncertainty over where Japanese bond yields will peak and how much further the central bank will have to hike rates. This remains one of the most critical structural questions for global markets this year. Shoki Omori of Deutsche Bank Tokyo draws a clear distinction: the carry trade of “fast money” has already unwound, while that of “slow money” has yet to begin—leaving the structural portion, namely Japanese pension funds and households holding foreign assets without currencyhedging. For the yen, this implies that while the era of endless declines may have ended, a permanent strengthening trend has yet to start. The math is simple: the benchmark 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield has climbed two percentage points in less than two years to over 3%, reaching a 30-year high and eroding the appeal of foreign debt. According to Omori, a currency-hedged Treasury position now yields less for a Japanese investor than domestic bonds. Barclays analysis shows investors bought 4.8 trillion yen in government bonds last month, the largest net purchase in three months, while HSBC estimates Japanese banks sold about $70 billion in foreign bonds this year (compared to buying $35 billion last year), a pullback felt from Europe to Australia.

However, the real big money remains sidelined. Aaron Hurd of State Street Global Advisors notes that repatriation is at a very early stage and acceleration might not happen until 2027, explaining in a single sentence why: it is crucial for investors to sense that Japanese yields have peaked; nobody wants to catch a falling knife. Life insurers, holding 438.6 trillion yen ($2.78 trillion) in assets, are moving slowly. The only variable that could rapidly change this equation is Japan’s $1.8 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF): the Ministry of Finance has encouraged the fund to increase its weighting in domestic markets, and according to Pioneer Investments’ Paresh Upadhyaya, if the fund formalizes this, other domestic investors will be forced to realign their allocations. The yen hovers around 158.2-158.8 this morning, giving back most of its early September gains; its year-to-date loss is only 1%, though it hit near 40-year lows of 164 in July. Speculator positioning flipped from a deep net short in the first two weeks of September to a $9.7 billion net long, the largest since July 2025. Naka Matsuzawa of Nomura points out that while U.S. yields are rising, the BOJ will struggle to keep pace; until stability is achieved, it is not prudent for the bank to make a new hawkish move or for the market to unwind dollar-yen positions. He adds that if life insurers see the end of BOJ normalization and start bringing money back, the yen could strengthen past 150, but that time has not yet arrived. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs lowered its 12-month USD/JPY forecast from 165 to 150, citing that faster rate hikes would mitigate the inflationary impact of expansionary fiscal policy, thereby easing pressure on the currency.

Two Prices, Two Risks in Oil

An unusual divergence occurred in oil this week: Brent and WTI moved in opposite directions. Brent is heading to close the week up 2.09% at $105.73, while WTI dropped 6.42% to $93.05, widening the spread between the two benchmarks to $12.68—the widest since May, having breached $13 during the week. Normally, the two benchmarks move in tandem with the U.S. contract trading at a modest discount. The reason for the gap is fear of a diesel export ban, which would flood the U.S. domestic market with product and depress local prices. Tim Waterer of KCM Trade notes that this unusual width also reflects two differing regional risk profiles: Brent, as international crude, is directly exposed to Middle East and Hormuz disruptions, while WTI benefits from relatively sheltered U.S. supply. On Thursday, both contracts rose by up to 5% intraday, with Brent gaining 3.4% to mark its highest close since September 15, triggered by a Houthi missile attack on Saudi Arabia. The Saudi-led coalition announced that six ballistic missiles were intercepted, targeting the southern province of Taif and the Red Sea region of Yanbu.

On the diplomatic front, a tangible framework is taking shape. According to sources close to the talks, U.S. and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased exit from the conflict: Tehran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Washington will lift the economic blockade. According to a senior Iranian official, the most realistic path is for Iran to allow navigation in the strait in exchange for the U.S. ending its maritime blockade. The two sides agreed on a similar approach via a memorandum of understanding on June 17, but the deal quickly collapsed and fighting resumed; it remains unclear what is different this time. Pezeshkian shifted the ball back to the U.S. in a Fox News interview on Thursday, stating: “America must decide whether or not it wants to end this.” Saudi Arabia is increasing pumping volumes through the East-West pipeline feeding the Yanbu export terminal on the Red Sea, but industry sources, satellite imagery, and vessel tracking data show tanker loadings have not yet resumed. Since the war began in late February, roughly a fifth of global oil and gas shipments have been restricted, and prices surged 50% in March alone.

Market Tour

Equities

Wall Street closed flat on Thursday despite the jump in yields: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were unchanged, the Dow fell 0.31% to 51,350, heading for its fourth consecutive weekly loss. On a weekly basis, the Nasdaq is up 1.6%, the S&P up 0.7%, and the Dow down 0.6%; this divergence held throughout the week. The VIX ticked up to 15.7. On an individual stock basis, Meta jumped 4.5% to $778, extending its monthly gains to 36.5% on the continued Muse effect, with the RSI deep in overbought territory at 81; AMD rose 2.4% to $629 (up 31.3% for the month), TSMC gained 1% to $451, and Alphabet added 1.3% to $342. On the weaker side, ASML fell 1.3% to $1,723, Nvidia dropped 0.4% to $225, and Apple slipped 0.3% to $336. Two major after-hours moves: Akamai surged roughly 20% after announcing a 7-year, $11.6 billion computing power deal with Anthropic, which included a warrant giving Anthropic the right to buy roughly 5% of the company at $111.33 per share; Scholastic slumped 13% on a quarterly loss. Oracle declined over 3% in the U.S. after issuing a force majeure notice regarding its New Mexico data center project, whereas Oracle Japan rallied 7% in Tokyo on record quarterly results.

Asia is largely closed on Friday for holidays in mainland China, Taiwan, and South Korea. Japan’s Nikkei rose 1-1.3% to 66,372 on weak yen support, posting a 4.5% weekly gain within an uptrend. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 1.4-1.7% to 24,405, entering a bear market, led by losses in financials, basic materials, and tech. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.4-0.6% to 8,665, with an RSI of 33 indicating oversold conditions and a 5.5% monthly loss; its resource-heavy structure faces pressure in a high-rate environment. The Sensex stands at 73,766 with an RSI of 29. European equities are expected to open 0.6% higher, supported by a 1% drop in oil, though indices like the DAX (25,267) and CAC (8,081) are heading for weekly losses. BIST 100 fell 2.74% to 12,888; its monthly loss is 11% with an RSI of 31 in oversold territory, trading well below its 200-day moving average and remaining one of the weakest major indices globally.

Foreign Exchange

The dollar index sits at 101.20-101.24, its highest since late July, heading for a 1% weekly gain and its first back-to-back weekly increase since June; the RSI is at 72 (overbought). Rising yields and higher Fed pricing are the primary drivers, but the rally is losing momentum. ANZ head of Asia research Khoon Goh explains why: the dollar should be supported by high yields, but concerns over the U.S. fiscal position and the unpredictability of policymaking persist, which is why the dollar struggles to sustain its rise even as yields keep climbing. The euro trades at a two-month low of 1.1370-1.1380 with an RSI of 25 (deeply oversold) and is on track for its third straight weekly decline, its worst streak since late 2025. Sterling is at a three-month low of 1.3219-1.3220, heading for its worst week in four months (RSI 26). The yen remains near a three-week low at 158.2-158.8; new verbal warnings from Tokyo and comments from a former BOJ board member suggesting the central bank could now hike rates every quarter are capping the downside. The Australian dollar is at 0.7015-0.7021, the New Zealand dollar at 0.5663 (RSI 26). USD/CHF is at 0.8288 (RSI 66), and USD/CAD is at 1.4150 (RSI 70) in an uptrend. Offshore yuan is flat at 6.7037-6.715; the closed-door Trump-Xi summit yielded no breakthrough on tough topics like AI, trade, Taiwan, and the Iran war. USD/TRY hit a new record high at 48.96, with an RSI of 92.

Commodities

Oil presents the dual picture described above: Brent fell 0.8-1.1% to $105.44-105.73, while WTI dropped 1.7-1.8% to $92.90-93.05. Brent is up 19% for the month in an uptrend (RSI 63), whereas WTI is up 12.8% monthly but heading for its first negative week in four, down 6.4%. Natural gas stands at $3.28; up 13.2% weekly and 18.6% monthly, making it the strongest leg of the energy complex with an RSI of 73 in overbought territory. Precious metals continue to soften under rising real yields: gold is at $4,303, down 2.2% weekly and 8.3% monthly, with an RSI of 40 nearing its 200-day moving average; silver is at $64.07, platinum at $1,750, and palladium at $1,264, all posting weekly losses, with palladium in a bear market. Copper holds an uptrend, up 0.6% to $6.76, though its weekly gain has slipped to 2.6%. In grains, wheat fell 2.3% to 690.5, losing 5% on the week and breaking its uptrend, while cocoa is flat at 5,594. As a footnote, fuel prices in Africa are rising sharply due to the war’s impact on supply; the U.S. national gasoline average is $4.48 per gallon, compared to $3.16 a year ago.

Crypto

Bitcoin rebounded above $84,200 after dipping to $83,360 on Thursday, trading at $84,228 this morning, up 0.25% over 24 hours. The drop was driven by profit-taking: Santiment’s realized profit/loss metric spiked during Monday’s rally to its highest level since December 12, 2025, meaning many investors used the price rise to close or trim positions, creating excess supply that pushed prices down for three sessions. Conversely, the demand side remains resilient: U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw $190.65M in net inflows on Thursday, marking their sixth consecutive day of inflows. Continued inflows during a price drop are significant, as ETF issuers buy underlying bitcoin to match new demand, absorbing part of the profit-taking supply. Large wallets are also accumulating: addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 bitcoins have accumulated 113,950 BTC since July 15, boosting their total holdings by 2.22% to approximately 5.24 million BTC (worth around $9.5 billion at current prices). The technical structure remains intact: bitcoin sits above all 50-, 100-, and 200-day exponential moving averages, which are clustered in the $73,000–$76,100 range, forming a broad support zone if the correction deepens. The daily RSI is at 64, neutral-to-bullish but below overbought thresholds. Initial resistance is at $85,000; a daily close above this targets the $87,395 peak again, while sustained trading below it points to initial balance near $83,000, followed by the 50-day EMA at $76,100. Today’s roughly $14 billion Deribit options expiry is a factor capable of amplifying short-term volatility.

Among altcoins, ENA led the day by rising 5.6% to $0.222, extending its monthly gain to 55%; ADA rose 3.2% to $0.248, XRP gained 1.8% to $1.53, and Solana added 1.2% to $116.5. Ether is slightly negative at $2,680, while Tron diverged lower, down 1.3%. The day’s major crypto story, however, is an exchange exploit covered in our second feature story.

Second Story: Bitget suffers $351.6 million exploit

Crypto exchange Bitget suffered a $351.6 million loss overnight in a security breach. CEO Gracy Chen stated on X that attackers simulated transfer requests to drain funds, but confirmed that private keys were not compromised: “The attacker hijacked a critical backend system in our wallet infrastructure, used it to forge transaction data, and triggered our authorization process to route funds out. The possibility of a private key compromise has been ruled out.” This distinction is crucial and points to a less alarming attack vector, as private key compromises have historically been the source of the industry’s largest thefts: if keys are copied, attackers can continuously sign new transfers and drain funds indefinitely. Chen described the incident as the digital equivalent of passing fake withdrawal slips through a bank’s own teller window: the vault keys never left the building; someone entered the room where slips were prepared, generated official-looking paperwork, and submitted it through the approval window the bank uses daily, causing the approving system to view it as a normal payout.

The incident came to light when Bitget’s systems flagged unauthorized transfers from some hot wallets on September 24 at 18:31 UTC. Hot wallets remain connected to the internet to ensure fast movement of funds for instant exchange transactions. Chen noted that the attack also reached the warm wallet layer—the semi-connected buffer between hot wallets and offline cold storage—while cold storage remained completely secure. Fund outflows were halted, preventing any further unauthorized transfers, though the exact method of system infiltration is still under investigation. Bitget’s User Protection Fund, exceeding $464 million, covers the entirety of the loss, and Chen stated that user balances are accurate and assets are protected. Depositing and trading remain open, while withdrawals have been temporarily suspended as a precaution pending security reviews; the company stated it will not promise a timeframe it cannot guarantee. Market impact has been limited so far since the loss is covered by the protection fund and the attack vector remained isolated to the infrastructure layer. However, this marks the latest in a string of infrastructure vulnerabilities appearing consecutively over recent weeks, following Liquid Network, Coldcard, and Core Lightning; traders should monitor when withdrawals reopen and the content of the technical post-mortem report.

Levels to Watch

• U.S. 10-Year Yield (5.2251% / 5.50%): A 19-year high and the lower bound of the JPMorgan survey’s breakage range. As long as yields remain here, equity valuations, housing, and emerging markets stay under pressure.
• U.S. Mortgage Rate (7.45%): The highest since April 2024. This is the primary channel for Morgan Stanley’s anticipated consumption slowdown and adds political pressure ahead of the midterms.
• Brent-WTI Spread ($12.68): Widest since May. The spread will remain wide as long as diesel ban uncertainties persist; if the ban idea is shelved, WTI will quickly close the gap.
• Dollar Index (101.2): Highest since late July, RSI at 72. As Goh warned, the rally is losing momentum; today’s durable goods and Michigan data will serve as a validation test.
• USD/JPY (158-159): Goldman lowered its 12-month forecast to 150, but for Matsuzawa, a true reversal depends on life insurers returning. Short-term verbal intervention remains a limiting risk.
• Bitcoin ($85,000 / $83,000 / $76,100): Resistance, initial balance zone, and the 50-day moving average. Today’s $14 billion options expiry could magnify price action, while a sixth consecutive day of ETF inflows provides support.

Weekly Calendar

Date	Day	Event / Development
Sept 25	Friday	U.S. August durable goods orders and Michigan consumer sentiment; New York Fed President Williams and BoE Governor Bailey speak at a UK conference; approx. $14B crypto options expiry on Deribit; markets in China, Taiwan, and South Korea closed for holidays
Upcoming Week	—	Reserve Bank of Australia (25 bps hike to 4.60% expected, potentially the cycle’s final hike); Riksbank signals year-end hike
Sept 28	Monday	Scheduled mainnet activation date for Solana Agave 4.3 features
Oct 6	Tuesday	Ethereum Glamsterdam public testnet launch (Sepolia)
Late October	—	FOMC meeting (probability of a hike priced at 68-71%; over 90 bps of tightening priced in for this cycle)
Nov 3	Tuesday	U.S. midterm elections; new deadline for the U.S.-China trade truce in late November