Iran Deal Sparks Global Rally, SpaceX Surpasses $2 Trillion & Bitcoin Hits Two-Week High
Monday, June 15, 2026 | Daily briefing on the U.S.-Iran agreement, collapsing oil prices, SpaceX’s $2 trillion milestone, and Bitcoin’s two-week high.
Main Theme
Late Sunday evening, the United States and Iran reached an agreement calling for the immediate and permanent cessation of all military operations.
President Trump announced on Truth Social that the agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran had been completed. He stated that the Strait of Hormuz would officially reopen on Friday, June 19, while the United States would also remove its naval blockade of Iran.
Trump’s most memorable remark captured the market mood:
“World ships, start your engines! Let the oil flow!”
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif confirmed that the official signing ceremony is scheduled for Friday in Switzerland, with Pakistan serving as the primary mediator.
However, important caveats remain.
The agreement is currently considered an interim arrangement. Sanctions remain unresolved, and Trump warned that military operations could resume if nuclear negotiations fail. Markets remember that the April ceasefire collapsed and the June 9 ceasefire was ultimately broken by renewed U.S. strikes.
This time, however, investors appear willing to believe the story—while remaining cautious.
Market reaction has been dramatic.
Oil prices collapsed:
- WTI: $80.89 (-4.70% daily, -11.40% weekly)
- Brent: $83.78 (-4.07% daily, -11.11% weekly)
These are the lowest levels since late February, effectively erasing the entire geopolitical risk premium created during the conflict.
Asian markets surged:
- Nikkei 225: +4.99% to 69,311 (record close)
- Kospi: +4.94% to 8,525
- ASX 200: +1.29%
- Shanghai Composite: +1.21%
- Nifty 50: +1.45%
Technology and AI infrastructure stocks led the gains:
- SoftBank: +12%
- Tokyo Electron: +9.19%
- Advantest: +7.69%
- SK Hynix: +6.42%
- Samsung Electronics: +4.65%
U.S. futures are also pointing higher:
- Dow Futures: +0.9%
- S&P 500 Futures: +1.14%
- Nasdaq Futures: +1.79%
Bitcoin trades at $65,928, its highest level in two weeks.
Meanwhile, SpaceX (SPCX) closed Friday at $161, up 19% from its IPO price and pushing its valuation above $2 trillion, making Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire.
Macro Framework
Iran Agreement: Is the Third Time Finally Different?
Investors have good reason to be skeptical after multiple failed ceasefires.
However, this agreement differs from previous attempts in several important ways:
1. Pakistan’s Mediation Is Concrete
The diplomatic channel is clear and publicly acknowledged.
2. A Specific Signing Date Exists
Markets now have a defined milestone: June 19 in Switzerland.
3. Hormuz Reopening Details Are Operational
The agreement includes practical implementation measures, including the removal of maritime restrictions and reopening of shipping lanes.
4. Military Operations Have Stopped
Unlike previous attempts, military actions and diplomatic messaging are now aligned.
Despite this progress, markets continue to apply a “deal discount” until the agreement is formally signed.
Bitcoin and crypto investors remain particularly cautious after two previous ceasefire failures.
The broader macro channel may ultimately matter more than the agreement itself:
Lower oil prices → lower inflation pressure → greater Fed flexibility → reduced risk of aggressive Bank of Japan tightening → lower carry-trade unwind risk → improved liquidity for risk assets.
One important uncertainty remains.
Because sanctions have not yet been resolved, Iranian oil may not immediately return to full export capacity. The supply impact could take weeks to fully materialize.
FOMC Week: Warsh’s First Major Policy Decision
The June 16–17 FOMC meeting now becomes the central event of the week.
According to CME FedWatch, markets assign a 98%+ probability that rates remain unchanged.
This will be Kevin Warsh’s first major decision meeting as Fed Chair.
The tone of his communication may prove more important than the decision itself.
Falling oil prices reduce inflation pressure and provide room for a more balanced policy stance.
Arguments for caution remain:
- Headline CPI: 4.2%
- Core CPI: 2.9%
As Wirex’s Yves Renno noted:
“Warsh’s tone will determine whether Bitcoin jumps toward $68,000–$72,000 or breaks below $60,000.”
The Iran agreement has increased the probability of the bullish scenario.
Additional economic releases this week include housing data and retail sales.
The Bank of Japan will also announce its policy decision tomorrow, where lower energy prices could soften previously hawkish expectations.
SpaceX: Musk Becomes the World’s First Trillionaire
SpaceX began trading Friday under the ticker SPCX.
IPO statistics:
- IPO Price: $135
- Opening Price: $150 (+11%)
- Closing Price: $161 (+19%)
- Market Capitalization: Above $2 trillion
The valuation now exceeds every previous IPO in history.
Retail demand reached historic levels.
According to VandaTrack, individual investors purchased approximately $118 million of SPCX shares, representing more than half of all retail net buying activity in single-stock trading.
Interestingly, investors funded those purchases by selling existing winners such as:
- Micron
- Marvell
- Robinhood
However, valuation concerns remain.
Estimated multiples:
- SpaceX: ~100x earnings
- Nvidia: ~31x earnings
- Apple: ~35x earnings
Morningstar estimates fair value at $63 per share and assigns only a 7% probability to its most optimistic $154 “moonshot” scenario.
Former Tesla board member Steve Westly warned:
“Investors will become restless if growth projections are not met within three or four quarters.”
Another interesting development occurred in derivatives markets.
Hyperliquid’s SpaceX perpetual futures surged from $166 to $180 overnight, likely driven by short-covering and forced liquidations.
Asia: Nikkei Hits Record High, SoftBank Surges 12%
Asian markets delivered one of their strongest sessions of the year.
Performance:
- Nikkei 225: +4.99% (record close)
- Topix: +3.32%
- Kospi: +4.94%
Key winners:
- SoftBank: +12%
- Tokyo Electron: +9.19%
- Advantest: +7.69%
- Samsung Electronics: +4.65%
- SK Hynix: +6.42%
- TSMC: +2.16%
- Foxconn: +2.5%
AI infrastructure stocks were at the center of the rally.
For SoftBank specifically, investors responded positively to:
- Vision Fund’s SpaceX exposure
- France’s $75 billion AI infrastructure initiative
- Reduced geopolitical risk following the Iran agreement
The move effectively erased much of the previous three-week AI-related selloff.
Whether the rally continues depends heavily on the FOMC meeting and the formal signing of the Iran agreement later this week.
Crypto
Bitcoin trades at $65,928, its highest level in two weeks and up 7.18% over the past seven days.
Since the sub-$60,000 lows recorded on June 9, BTC has recovered approximately 9%.
Major altcoins have followed:
| Asset | Weekly Performance |
| ETH | +6.19% |
| SOL | +12.87% |
| XRP | +8.04% |
| DOGE | +7.20% |
| ADA | +12.94% |
| AVAX | +6.30% |
| LTC | +8.96% |
Some of the strongest rebounds came from smaller-cap assets:
- ETHFI: +15.41%
- ENS: +13.19%
- ENA: +19.17%
Technical indicators have recovered from deeply oversold territory:
- BTC RSI: 42
- ETH RSI: 38
- SOL RSI: 45
- ENA RSI: 45
However, Stochastic indicators above 90 suggest that a short-term consolidation may be needed.
Is the Rally Sustainable?
Positive factors:
- Iran de-escalation reduces inflation pressure.
- Lower oil prices improve the probability of future Fed easing.
- Reduced BOJ tightening risk supports global liquidity.
- ETF flows could stabilize after recent record outflows.
Negative factors:
- Previous ceasefire rallies eventually failed.
- Corporate treasury demand remains weak.
- Strategy’s earlier BTC sale raised concerns about long-term demand.
- AVAT’s poor public debut continues to challenge the Digital Asset Treasury model.
- Institutional ETF flows remain negative.
The current rally remains catalyst-driven rather than structurally driven.
The FOMC decision and Friday’s formal agreement signing will determine whether this move can continue.
Commodities
Oil is the week’s biggest loser.
| Commodity | Price | Daily Change | Weekly Change |
| WTI Crude | $80.89 | -4.70% | -11.40% |
| Brent Crude | $83.78 | -4.07% | -11.11% |
The Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen Friday, restoring one of the world’s most important energy corridors.
Structural factors supporting lower prices include:
- Reduced Chinese imports
- Record U.S. crude exports
- Alternative transportation routes
If the agreement holds, Brent could stabilize in a $75–85 range over the medium term.
If negotiations collapse, oil could quickly return above $95.
Precious Metals
Gold continues its recovery:
- Gold: $4,329.80 (+2.72%)
- Silver: $70.15 (+3.38%)
- Palladium: $1,328 (+4.06%)
The rebound reflects:
- A weaker U.S. dollar
- Increased expectations for future Fed cuts
- Improving market liquidity conditions
Goldman Sachs and Lombard Odier continue to support a 12-month target near $5,400.
Equities & FX Snapshot
Equity Markets
Strong weekly performers:
- AMD: +9.69%
- ASML: +13.51%
- Tesla: +3.95%
- TSMC: +2.35%
- SpaceX: +19%
Underperformers:
- Apple: -5.27%
- Microsoft: -6.22%
- Amazon: -3.04%
- Meta: -4.39%
Foreign Exchange
- EUR/USD: 1.1612 (+0.77%)
- GBP/USD: 1.3448 (+0.84%)
- USD/JPY: 160.11
- USD/CNH: 6.7570
The U.S. dollar continues to weaken as risk appetite improves globally.
This Week’s Calendar
| Date | Day | Event |
| June 15 | Monday | Iran agreement rally continues – Nikkei records all-time high close – SpaceX exceeds $2T valuation |
| June 16 | Tuesday | Bank of Japan interest-rate decision – U.S. housing data – First day of FOMC meeting |
| June 17 | Wednesday | FOMC decision – First major policy meeting under Warsh – Markets expect no rate change |
| June 18 | Thursday | U.S. retail sales data – Positioning ahead of Iran agreement signing |
| June 19 | Friday | U.S. markets closed for Juneteenth – Official U.S. Iran agreement signing in Switzerland |
| June 19 | Friday | Strait of Hormuz officially reopens – U.S. naval blockade removed |