Iran Deal Optimism, SpaceX IPO Debut & Bitcoin’s Recovery Test

Friday, June 12, 2026 | Daily briefing on the Iran peace breakthrough, SpaceX’s record-breaking IPO, and Bitcoin’s fight for momentum.

Main Theme

Thursday evening brought a major geopolitical surprise. Speaking from the Oval Office, President Trump announced that the United States and Iran had reached a “major agreement,” subject only to final document completion. He stated that the agreement could be signed within “a few days.”

According to CNBC, this marks the 39th time during the conflict that Trump has claimed a deal was close. However, this time markets reacted differently.

The more important signal was Trump’s announcement that planned U.S. military strikes against Iran had been canceled. He stated that negotiations had been elevated to the highest levels of Iranian leadership and had received approval. Trump also emphasized that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen immediately once an agreement is signed.

Iran’s response was more cautious. State-affiliated Fars News reported that Tehran had not yet approved the memorandum but suggested that Washington may have returned to a framework closer to Iran’s preferred terms.

In short, the diplomatic progress appears more credible than previous attempts, but uncertainty remains.

Markets reacted dramatically.

Oil prices fell sharply:

• WTI July Futures: $86.30 (-4% overnight)
• Brent August Futures: $88.80 (-4% overnight)

Frontline CEO Lars Barstad commented that if the agreement proves durable, tanker traffic through Hormuz should rise significantly from the current 5–10 vessels per day.

Equity markets responded positively.

After Wednesday’s 953-point decline, the Dow Jones rebounded more than 900 points on Thursday.

Asian markets followed higher this morning:

• Nikkei 225: +4%
• Kospi: +7%
• MSCI Asia Pacific: +3.5% (largest daily gain in two months)

European futures indicate an opening gain of approximately 1.8%.

Bitcoin trades around $63,352.

Today also marks the long-awaited Nasdaq listing of SpaceX (SPCX), priced at $135 per share, raising $75 billion at a $1.8 trillion valuation, making it the largest IPO in history. Pre-listing markets are pricing a debut gain of more than 35%, while Oppenheimer has initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a 12-month target of $190.

Macro Framework

Iran Diplomacy: Is the 39th Attempt Finally Real?

Trump’s repeated claims that an agreement was imminent naturally create skepticism.

However, two developments distinguish this announcement from previous attempts:

1. Planned U.S. Military Strikes Were Canceled

This represents a shift from rhetoric to action and signals a meaningful change in policy.

2. A Concrete Timeline Was Provided

Trump explicitly stated that a final signature could arrive within days rather than offering vague optimism.

Iran’s response remains mixed.

While Fars News denied formal approval of the memorandum, it simultaneously acknowledged that Washington appears to have retreated from several previous demands.

Markets have clearly shifted toward a more optimistic positioning.

BMO Capital noted that oil prices remained surprisingly resilient despite recent military exchanges because ongoing diplomatic efforts, alternative export routes outside Hormuz, and sharply declining Chinese imports have all helped offset geopolitical risks.

Citi analysts added that China can sustain current consumption levels through inventory drawdowns while maintaining imports around 8.7 million barrels per day, reducing the likelihood of a near-term demand-driven oil spike.

The implication is important:

Even if the conflict continues, upside pressure on oil appears limited. Conversely, a peace agreement may not trigger a collapse in prices because supply and demand conditions remain structurally balanced.

Wall Street’s V-Shaped Reversal

The last two trading sessions were mirror images of each other.

Wednesday

• Headline CPI: 4.2%
• Trump threatened stronger military action against Iran
• Oracle announced an additional $20 billion AI financing plan

Market reaction:

• Nasdaq: -1.98%
• S&P 500: -1.62%
• Oracle: -10% after hours

Thursday

• Core CPI came in at 0.2% versus 0.3% expected
• Diplomatic progress with Iran emerged
• Planned military strikes were canceled
• Oil prices dropped 4%

Market reaction:

• Dow Jones: +900 points

The sharp reversal highlights the market’s current event-driven trading environment.

Asian markets extended the momentum:

• Nikkei: +4%
• Kospi: +7%

Korea Exchange CEO Jeong Eun-bo stated that recent foreign selling should not be interpreted as a loss of confidence but rather as portfolio rebalancing after substantial gains in Korean equities.

The AI supply chain also rebounded:

• SK Hynix: +6%+
• Samsung Electronics: Positive
• TSMC ecosystem: Broad gains

ASML surged 9.53% in a single session and remains up more than 8% for the week, reinforcing its role as one of the structural winners of the AI infrastructure boom.

SpaceX IPO Day: The Largest Public Offering in History

SpaceX begins trading today on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX.

Key details:

• Share Price: $135
• Shares Sold: 555.6 million
• Capital Raised: $75 billion
• Valuation: $1.8 trillion

The offering more than doubles Saudi Aramco’s previous IPO record from 2019.

SpaceX generated approximately $19 billion in revenue last year through launch services, government contracts, and the rapidly expanding Starlink satellite network.

While valuation remains aggressive, Oppenheimer has assigned a Buy rating with a 12-month target of $190.

Pre-market indications suggest investors expect a first-day gain exceeding 35%.

Another notable detail is the reduction in retail allocation. Initial expectations were around 30%, but final allocations reportedly landed in the low-20% range, signaling exceptionally strong institutional demand.

Why It Matters for Crypto

As of March 31, SpaceX reportedly held 18,712 BTC, worth approximately $1.2 billion at current prices.

This effectively gives public-market investors indirect Bitcoin exposure through SpaceX shares.

Reports also continue to circulate regarding a potential future combination of Tesla and SpaceX. Tesla already holds more than 11,500 BTC, meaning a merged entity would control over 30,000 BTC.

An additional innovation is that SpaceX shares will be tokenized through Backpack and traded on the Solana blockchain.

This would make SpaceX one of the highest-profile examples yet of public U.S. equities trading on-chain.

AVAT’s 38% Collapse Challenges the Digital Asset Treasury Model

Avalanche Treasury Company (AVAT) debuted on Nasdaq Thursday and immediately fell 38.13%, closing at $1.85.

Trading statistics:

• Opening Price: $2.99
• High: $3.00
• Low: $1.75

The company entered public markets through a $675 million SPAC merger with Mountain Lake Acquisition Corp.

AVAT holds approximately 15 million AVAX tokens, representing around 3.5% of circulating supply.

While those holdings are worth approximately $99 million, the company itself carries a market capitalization of roughly $486 million.

Management argues that AVAT should be viewed not as a passive token holder but as an ecosystem operating company that allocates capital, stakes assets, and invests in Avalanche infrastructure.

The investor roster includes:

• Dragonfly
• ParaFi
• VanEck
• Galaxy Digital
• Pantera
• CoinFund
• Kraken
• FalconX
• Borderless

Advisors include Ava Labs founder Emin Gün Sirer and Aave founder Stani Kulechov.

Despite this backing, the market rejected the model on day one.

AVAX trades around $6.64 this morning, down more than 95% from its November 2021 all-time high of $144.96.

The debut serves as a major stress test for the Digital Asset Treasury model and reinforces Glassnode’s recent observation that institutional treasury demand across crypto is fading.

The market appears unwilling to extend MicroStrategy’s success formula to altcoin treasury companies.

Crypto

Bitcoin trades around $63,352 this morning.

While down 0.43% on the day, it has returned to positive territory on a weekly basis at +0.03%.

Most importantly, Bitcoin has successfully defended its 200-week moving average after briefly testing levels below $60,000 earlier in the week.

Thursday’s diplomatic developments pushed BTC as high as $63,550 before prices stabilized.

Has the Structural Picture Changed?

The de-escalation with Iran reduces pressure on oil prices and inflation expectations, potentially improving the outlook for future Fed easing.

However, the fundamental challenges remain:

1. ETF Outflows Continue

• Weekly outflow record: $1.72 billion
• Wednesday outflow: $213.85 million
• Total outflows since May 2: $5.72 billion

2. Corporate Treasury Demand Has Slowed

Glassnode reports that Digital Asset Treasury companies, which were purchasing more than $500 million worth of Bitcoin daily during April and May, have reduced activity to minimal levels.

3. Regulatory Optimism Is Fading

Polymarket now places the probability of the Clarity Act passing in 2026 at 48%, down from 62%.

4. AVAT’s Failure Signals Weak Demand

The 38% collapse of AVAT suggests public markets remain skeptical toward crypto treasury vehicles beyond Bitcoin-focused strategies.

Wirex’s Yves Renno summarized the current setup:

“All eyes remain on the June 16–17 FOMC meeting. Warsh’s tone will determine whether Bitcoin rallies toward $68,000–$72,000 or breaks back below $60,000.”

The market remains at a critical crossroads.

SpaceX Creates Both Risks and Opportunities for Crypto

On one hand, SPCX could attract significant retail and institutional capital away from crypto markets.

On the other, SpaceX’s 18,712 BTC holdings and the possibility of a future Tesla combination reinforce the long-term institutional Bitcoin narrative.

The tokenization of SpaceX shares on Solana also represents a meaningful milestone for blockchain-based securities markets.

Meanwhile, AVAT’s disappointing debut highlights the fragility of alternative treasury models during a period of tightening liquidity and declining risk appetite.

Strategy’s recent purchase of 1,550 BTC at an average price of $65,161 and its $1 billion cash reserve strengthen its position, but the perception of Strategy as an “infinite buyer” has clearly weakened.

This Week’s Close and Next Week’s Key Events

Date	Day	Event
June 12	Friday	SpaceX (SPCX) Nasdaq Debut ($1.8T valuation) – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Weekend	Saturday-Sunday	Expected progress on the U.S. “ –Iran agreement –FIFA World Cup opening events
June 16-17	Monday-Tuesday	FOMC Meeting – First major policy decision under Warsh – Markets expect no rate change
Ongoing	Ongoing	Bitcoin Successfully Defending Its 200-Week SMA – ETF outflows remain active
Ongoing	Ongoing	AVAT’s 38% Debut Loss Challenges the Digital Asset Treasury Model – Strategy remains a net buyer
Fall 2026	Q3-Q4	Anthropic IPO Expected – OpenAI IPO potentially targeting Q4 2026