Global Markets Analysis: The Hormuz Blockade, Peace Dynamics, and Quantum Transition in Crypto

Wednesday, April 15, 2026 Your daily briefing on the Hormuz blockade, market volatility, and the quantum future of Bitcoin.

1. MAIN AGENDA

As of 11:00 PM last night, the U.S. Central Command announced that the full-scale blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been completely implemented. According to the statement, approximately 90% of Iran’s maritime trade, which falls directly under the scope of the blockade, has now been entirely cut off. However, at the same hour, messages from the White House pointed toward preparations for a second round of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. The signal that both sides “see room” for talks caused two-way volatility in both equity and commodity markets.

Direct talks held in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, over the weekend ended without result. However, the Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ statement that “efforts are continuing” and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi’s communication with his French counterpart stating that “progress has been made on many issues” form the basis of the optimism that markets have begun to price in. The S&P 500, with the momentum gained over the last nine sessions, has erased all losses from the Iran war and sits just 0.2% below its all-time high; the Nasdaq closed higher for the tenth consecutive day.

Nevertheless, the simultaneous existence of a full blockade and hope for negotiations creates a rare “red-flag optimism” scenario. A report released Tuesday by the International Energy Agency stated that global oil supply fell by 10.1 million barrels per day in March, marking the largest supply disruption in history. Therefore, the return of such aggressive optimism in pricing without concrete progress toward peace brings the risk of a short-term correction.

2. MACRO FRAMEWORK

On the oil front, WTI futures dropped 7.9% yesterday to $91.28 per barrel, the lowest level seen since March 25. Brent fell 4.6% to $94.79. The fact that WTI traded below its international counterpart, Brent, for two consecutive days indicates the formation of a “peace expectation discount.” Additional downward pressure was created by news of Saudi Arabia increasing pressure on the U.S. to lift the blockade and European countries working on a mine-clearing plan to reopen the Strait.

On the Fed front, the mix of conditions continues. Tuesday’s announced wholesale inflation (PPI) for March came in below expectations; this suggests that the energy costs brought by the Iran war have not yet fully reflected in selling prices or that the rate of reflection is slower than estimated. Market participants are beginning to price in Fed rate cuts later in the year, a sentiment that helps risk assets thrive. However, IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas emphasized at the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings that the Iran war has led to “significant downward revisions” in global growth forecasts, serving as a warning about the limits of optimism.

In earnings season, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo showed that first-quarter data indicates both the economy and consumer confidence remain resilient; banks’ loan loss provisions came in below expectations. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley will report earnings today. In Europe, Dutch semiconductor supplier ASML reported first-quarter revenue exceeding 8.8 billion euros, beating expectations.

A striking reversal is observed in central bank gold holdings: some central banks, affected by liquidity shortages due to the Iran war, are beginning to sell gold, contrary to the relentless accumulation policies of previous years. This brings structural pressure alongside technical pressure after gold underwent a sharp correction from levels above $5,000.

3. CRYPTO

Bitcoin tested the $76,000 resistance yesterday, briefly moving above it to reach a daily high of $76,786; however, it retreated shortly after to settle around $74,000. This constitutes a continuation of the “red line” story that has persisted for two months since late February, where every rally attempt typically turns back upon reaching this zone. While the Nasdaq closed at a record in the same session, BTC’s reversal shows that the correlation between crypto and the stock market has yet to form.

Despite this, Vetle Lunde from K33 Research points to an important signal: funding rates for BTC perpetual futures contracts on Binance have been negative for the last 46 days, growing in parallel with rising open interest. Increasing positions while the rate remains negative means the market is increasingly positioning for short selling. K33 notes that this combination was also seen during the FTX collapse in late 2022 and the China ban in mid-2021, and in both instances, crowded short positions formed just before sharp upward moves.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a single-day net inflow of $471 million on April 6, the highest daily inflow since February, with cumulative inflows exceeding $56 billion since their launch in January 2024. Analysts point out that the current BTC price is near the estimated average entry price of U.S. spot ETF holders, noting that this level could function as a floor rather than a ceiling.

There is a notable divergence on the Ethereum front. The ETH/BTC ratio rose to 0.0313 on a weekly basis; this is a significant recovery from the 2026 low of 0.028 in February and represents a three-month high. Ethereum’s Q1 on-chain metrics are remarkable: the number of new users increased 82% quarter-on-quarter to 284,000, total transaction volume reached a record 200.4 million, and the stablecoin supply hit an all-time high of $180 billion. Analysts state that ETH must break the 0.035 ETH/BTC level on a weekly basis to speak of a full recovery; since the current price is still over 50% below its 52-week high, the story should be viewed as a bounce from the bottom rather than an ongoing recovery.

On the XRP front, an institutional catalyst from Japan has come into play. Rakuten, one of Japan’s largest e-commerce platforms, will integrate XRP into its payment app, enabling 44 million users to shop using XRP at over 5 million merchants, convert loyalty points to XRP, and hold them within the Rakuten Wallet. Integration with a loyalty point system worth $23 billion is considered one of Ripple’s largest tangible use cases in the Asian market.

Against the backdrop of these reports, a potentially more long-term development occurred: BIP-361, updated in the Bitcoin Improvement Proposals registry, is titled “Post-Quantum Migration and Legacy Signature Retirement.” The proposal outlines a three-stage plan to freeze coins of holders who do not migrate to new quantum-resistant addresses. Following Google’s recent report showing that a sufficiently powerful quantum machine could crack Bitcoin’s encryption system with less power than estimated, comments pointing to 2029 as the quantum deadline have emerged. The proposal was met with a sharp backlash in the crypto community, labeled as “authoritarian and confiscatory,” though developers emphasize it is a defensive measure. According to current data, approximately 6.7 million BTC are held in vulnerable addresses.

4. COMMODITIES

Gold is retreating toward the $4,800 support after its attempt to break the $4,860 resistance was quickly reversed. Market analysts emphasize the risk of a short-term correction, considering the oscillator indicating overbought territory on the four-hour timeframe and price action moving above the Bollinger Band. The addition of news regarding central bank sales raises questions about the rally’s sustainability. If it returns to test $4,860 and fails to close above it, a SHORT opportunity arises around $4,800; a break of this level would bring targets of $4,750 and $4,645 into play.

Silver is retreating with a doji-like close after failing to break the $80 resistance. Following a move of over $6 in the last two days, the entry of the RSI into overbought territory and the wick candle patterns seen at the peak indicate that momentum intensity may be nearing an end. Analysts maintain the possibility of a downward move targeting $77.10 support if it cannot hold above $80.

Copper, however, maintains its strength, diverging significantly from other precious metals. The price continues to trade above all short and medium-term averages; copper presents a much healthier technical picture compared to assets directly affected by the war, like crude oil and silver, backed by medium-to-long-term demand expectations arising from structural work demands in the U.S.

On the wheat front, the side effects of the Hormuz blockade on agricultural supply chains continue. ZW futures are above the EMA 20 and trending slightly positive; however, volume is not yet at a level to give a strong breakout signal. It is assessed that the war premium remains partially embedded in prices.

5. WEEKLY CALENDAR

Date	Event	Expectation / Note
Apr 15 (Wed)	Bank of America, Morgan Stanley Earnings	Second big day of S&P 500 bank earnings season; all eyes on credit quality and war impact.
Apr 15 (Wed)	IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings	Growth forecasts to be revised; IMF Chief Economist signaled “significant downward revisions” due to the Iran war.
Apr 15–18	US–Iran Negotiations	Second round dates unconfirmed; Pakistan continues mediation offer. Oil sensitivity to withdrawal news is high.
Apr 18 (Fri)	Ceasefire Deadline (2 Weeks)	The White House reported a 2-week period for negotiations to continue. Progress this week is critical.
Weekly	US Crude Oil Stock Change	Weekly stock data is of critical importance during this period where 10.1 million barrels of daily supply have left the market due to the Hormuz blockade.